Water FractalTier 1
at CMB Games Store Champs
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-0-1
overall winrate
90.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.9%
avg ELO +12.1 per match
expected value
57.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1390
· median 1390
· range 1390–1390
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1207
Q3 1439
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 23.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 23.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hidden | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
